U.S. Airlines Face Record "Spring Surge" Amid Shutdown and Global Entry Halt

Even as a partial government shutdown enters its second week of "political gridlock" in Washington, Airlines for America (A4A) issued a staggering forecast today, predicting that a record 171 million passengers will take to the skies this spring.

The trade group estimates that U.S. carriers will transport an average of 2.8 million people daily through April, marking a 4% increase over the previous year. This surge in "pent-up demand" is pushing the nation's aviation infrastructure to its absolute limit, just as federal support systems are beginning to fracture.

The most visible casualty of the funding lapse is the Global Entry program, which the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officially "paused" as an emergency measure. This suspension has effectively shuttered the fast-track lanes that more than 12 million international travelers rely on for expedited re-entry into the United States. While TSA PreCheck lanes remain operational for now, the U.S. Travel Association is warning of a "cascading meltdown" at customs halls, as officers working without pay are forced to prioritize basic screening over premium traveler benefits.

A4A President and CEO Chris Sununu did not mince words this morning, accusing policymakers of using the "American traveler" as a "political football." He noted that there is "no data-driven need" to suspend Global Entry and urged the DHS to act with immediate urgency to reopen the kiosks. The shutdown, triggered by a dispute over ICE funding and border policy, has left essential TSA and CBP personnel in the difficult position of securing the nation’s skies while their own families go without a paycheck.

For the 2026 business traveler, the timing of this shutdown is particularly "troubling" due to the concurrent Northeast blizzard that has already grounded thousands of flights. The combination of "natural disaster" and "legislative failure" has created a perfect storm of operational friction. Major hubs like JFK and Newark are reporting that even when the snow is cleared, the lack of "administrative staffing" for trusted traveler programs is leading to wait times that exceed three hours for returning international passengers.

In a bid to manage the chaos, the Transportation Security Administration has confirmed it is "suspending courtesy escorts" for Members of Congress, redirecting those officers to the front lines of passenger screening. This "equalization of misery" highlights the severity of the staffing constraints. Travelers are being told that while PreCheck metal detectors are still active, they should arrive at the airport at least three hours early to account for the "human-resource bottlenecks" that are now a daily reality.

The financial toll on the U.S. economy is also mounting. Previous shutdowns have cost the travel industry over $6 billion in lost productivity and cancelled trips, and 2026 is on track to exceed that figure. As airlines add 26,000 daily passenger flights to handle the spring rush, the disconnect between "private-sector growth" and "public-sector stagnation" has never been more apparent. The message to the 171 million travelers planning to fly this spring is clear: the system is "stretched to the breaking point," and patience is the only available upgrade.