Caribbean Cruise Industry May Take a Slow Burn in 2006, Estimates Indicate

Carnival Corp., Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. and other cruise lines may see a 4.5 percent rise in passengers this year, an industry trade group estimates. That would be the smallest growth rate in passengers in five years.

The Cruise Lines International Association said Wednesday it expects about 11.7 million people to travel aboard its members´ lines. An estimated 11.2 million people went on cruises in 2005.

If realized, the 2006 increase would be the smallest since 2001, when passenger traffic rose less than 1 percent.

Cruise lines are attempting to increase demand by increasing the number of departures from new ports and adding amenities such as gourmet food. The companies this year also will add six vessels, including Royal Caribbean International´s Freedom of the Seas, which will be the world´s largest passenger ship when it sets sail in May.

Carnival´s profits have exceeded analysts´ estimates in the past five quarters as revenue from onboard activities, such as spa services and gourmet dining rooms, helped make up for rising fuel costs. Royal Caribbean´s profit beat estimates in the past three quarters.

The CLIA represents 19 cruise lines, including Carnival´s Carnival line, Holland America and Windstar Lines, Royal Caribbean´s Royal Caribbean International and Celebrity lines, Disney Cruise Line and Star Cruises Ltd.´s Norwegian Cruise Line.

Carnival, Disney, Royal Caribbean, Holland America and Norwegian all sail from Port Canaveral, which bills itself as the second-busiest cruise port in the world. The port said it handled 4.6 million cruise passengers in 2004.