Trump’s Rollback of Current Cuba Policy Could Hurt U.S. Economy

U.S.-based airlines and cruise lines may lose up to $3.5bn should President Donald J. Trump choose to curtail liberalized travel policies between the US and Cuba, according to non-profit coalition Engage Cuba.

In an economic impact report released yesterday, economists, businesses and Cuba experts claim that a possible reversal in US-Cuba diplomatic policy – as reported by a number of US media outlets – could cost the US economy $6.6bn.

U.S. cruise operators and airlines stand to lose around $712 million in annual revenues if the Trump administration fully reinstates restrictions on travel to Cuba, Washington lobby group Engage Cuba said in a report released on Thursday.

U.S.-operated cruises and scheduled flights to the Caribbean island were relaunched last year after a half-century hiatus, as part of the detente with Cuba pursued by former President Barack Obama.

Cruise operators, from Carnival to Norwegian, stand to lose $200 million in revenue per year, Engage Cuba estimated, noting thousands of jobs in both sectors were at risk. The estimate was based on lost revenue from fully booked flights and cruises.

Eliminating cruises to Cuba could also cost South Florida's economy an additional $212.8 million, given what passengers spend in port communities, Cuba Engage said.

However, it is important to note that currently no new policy has been announced that points to a potential reconfiguration of the lifted embargo on travel.

The New York Times and CNN suggest Trump is considering a U-turn on the Obama administration’s landmark restoration of full diplomatic relations, which included the easing of restrictions on travel.

Referencing aides close to the Trump administration, The New York Times claims that Trump wants to announce changes in Miami as early as June, but a final decision has stalled due to ‘internal disagreements’ over the reversal of what was considered a significant foreign policy achievement for Obama.

In addition, U.S. travel giants AirBnB, Expedia and Tripadvisor now offer services to Cuba.

Engage Cuba points to the ‘significant economic activity’ generated within the US travel and tourism industry affected by six rounds of regulatory changes by the Obama regime since December 2014.

In turn, it says that rural Cuban communities across the island reliant on agriculture, manufacturing and shipping would be ‘disproportionately affected by adding regulations on travel and trade’.

President of Engage Cuba, James Williams added: “Reimposing restrictions on travelling to Cuba would force Americans to jump through even more bureaucratic hoops to exercise their right to travel freely.”