Airlines to Welcome 3.6 Billion Passengers in 2016

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released an industry traffic forecast showing that airlines expect to welcome some 3.6 billion passengers in 2016. That’s about 800 million more than the 2.8 billion passengers carried by airlines in 2011.

These figures are revealed in the IATA Airline Industry Forecast 2012-2016. This industry consensus outlook for system-wide passenger growth sees passenger numbers expanding by an average of 5.3 percent per annum between 2012 and 2016. The 28.5 percent increase in passenger numbers over the forecast period will see almost 500 million new passengers traveling on domestic routes and 331 million new passengers on international services.

International freight volumes will grow at 3 percent per annum to total 34.5 million tons in 2016. That is 4.8 million more tons of air cargo than the 29.6 million tons carried in 2011.

The emerging economies of Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East will see the strongest passenger growth. This will be led by routes within or connected to China, which are expected to account for 193 million of the 831 million new passengers over the forecast period (159 million on domestic routes and 34 million traveling internationally). Passenger growth within the Asia-Pacific region (domestic and international) is expected to add around 380 million passengers over the forecast period.

Through 2016, the United States will continue to be the largest single market for domestic passengers (710.2 million). In the same year, passengers on international routes connected to the United States will total 223 million, making it the largest single market for international travel as well.

Reflecting the maturity of the United States market, growth rates (2.6 percent for domestic and 4.3 percent for international) will be well below the international average (5.3  percent for international travel and 5.2 percent for domestic traffic).

International passenger numbers are expected to grow from 1.11 billion in 2011 to 1.45 billion passengers in 2016, bringing 331 million passengers for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3 percent.

International freight volumes are expected to grow at a five-year CAGR of 3.0 percent, which is the result of an upward growth trend over forecast period - starting at 1.4 percent growth in 2012 and reaching 3.7 percent in 2016.

North America will record the slowest international passenger demand growth--4.3 percent CAGR. International freight demand will rise 2.4 percent. Latin America will see international passenger demand grow 5.8 percent CAGR. International freight demand will increase 4.4 percent per annum.