How Big an Impact Can Donald Trump Have on World Travel, Tourism?

In what is being called the “biggest upset in U.S. history”, Donald Trump’s stunning victory over Hillary Clinton last night in the U.S. presidential election has sent shockwaves around the world. Global markets plunged, the loonie tanked a whole cent in less than four hours, and travel experts are predicting a colossal impact to global tourism.

Stock markets around the world took early morning hits — reports that the U.S. stock futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.1%, while stocks in London plunged over 4.3% — before recovering some of the losses.

The Mexican peso was one of the world’s hardest-hit currencies, tumbling 12% to a record low of 20.5708 to the dollar early Wednesday. And at 11:48 p.m. ET, the loonie was worth US$0.74119, according to XE.com. It lost more than a cent in early trading the day after the vote, falling to $0.768 for its biggest drop in 18 months.

So, what does all this mean for travel and tourism? According to many experts, a Trump win is both a good and bad thing, depending on where you are in the world. The Telegraph in the UK says that a weaker dollar over the longer term could lead to cheaper holidays not only in America but around the world. Since oil is priced in U.S. dollars, this could mean a price drop in airfares and other transportation, while cruises – many of which are costed in dollars – can also see a dip in prices.

On the flip side, a Euromonitor paper published earlier this week said Trump’s America-centric platform, his threat to ban Muslims or residents of terrorism-afflicted countries and to build a wall between the U.S. and Mexico will have devastating consequences on the travel and tourism industry.

It said that Mexico tourism, which is the second largest source market for inbound travelers to the U.S. behind only Canada, would be particularly hit, and that companies like Airbnb and Expedia, both of which rely heavily on the Mexican market, would be among those negatively affected.

A Travelzoo poll taken before Trump’s victory found that 20% of Brits said they would not travel to the U.S. following a Trump win, and that although inbound tourism to the States would suffer, Canadian tourism would enjoy a boost.

“We know that the USA is perennially the most popular long-haul destination for British holidaymakers, with New York being the most searched-for city in the world, but the reality of a Trump White House may drive further uncertainty. It could mean Brits delay booking their stateside holidays until the dust settles or even consider switching to an alternative destination, such as Canada,” said Andrew Shelton, managing director of Cheapflights.co.uk.

One agent on the Facebook travel industry page Travel Gossip said clients have already told her they will be boycotting the U.S., reports TravelMole. “I have at least two clients so far that won’t go to America now he’s in. The positive for us is that it will make the Caribbean and anywhere else based on the dollar better value for a while but Gold help America, they will need it,” she said.

Another agent based in Ontario tells Travelweek that a client has already backed out of a Disney vacation in light of Trump’s win. The client told her that they “in good conscience, cannot put any money into the U.S. economy” and that there is “too much uncertainty regarding the direction the country will take in 2017 for us to plan to travel there at this time.”

Trump as president could also mean devastating consequences in Cuba, where the Obama administration has spent the last two years negotiating normalization after more than 50 years of Cold War hostility, setting off a tourism boom. Trump has promised to roll back Obama’s opening with Cuba unless President Raul Castro agrees to more political freedoms.

“First thing I did this morning was pray for our elected leaders and our nation,” said Mario Scalzi, president of ParkerVillas.com. “It was important from a travel perspective that the result was conclusive. Election cycles without incumbents are typically problematic — each side is afraid the world will end if the opposition wins resulting in a paralyzing effect. An undisputed outcome allows folks to quickly switch their focus back to their own lives — especially travel. Losing sides are always incentivized to get out of Dodge for a while, just as winners see travel as an opportunity to celebrate. Glad it's over.”

Christina Ernst said that it was difficult reading the news stories online today. “I took the results hard since I run three businesses based on travel,” said Ernst, of VIP Southern Tours Wine Tours. “I have had a few clients reach out to me regarding moving, but I think this attitude will change in a few years. I am concerned on short-term travel with clients, and international travel. I do believe we will see a surge in last-minute travel on both inbound and outbound travel this holiday season.”

“Between hotels, casinos and golf courses, Trump has a demonstrated interest in the hospitality industry,” Rick Hurlbut, a travel industry professional. “While his personal assets will now be placed in a blind trust, there's good reason to believe he will enact policies which benefit the tourism industry - if only to further his own business interests.”

Greg Antonelle said that it doesn’t matter what his personal opinion is about the election. “Regardless of how I voted as an individual, 59 million people agreed with me and 59 million people disagreed with me,” said Antonelle, managing partner of MickeyTravels, LLC. “That being said, I don’t believe much will change with regards to our travel business with Donald Trump as president. I don’t anticipate any significant uptick or downturn in business and I don’t foresee any consumers traveling more or less because of Trump being elected.”

Leila Peverett Coe, an independent consultant for World Class Travel and a co-founder of Travel Agent Awareness, believes that it’s a little too early to say what's going to happen, but she hopes people will still continue to travel.

“But if the economy collapses then they won't,” she said. “I am concerned that people won't want to leave the country for a while after he's in office for fear something bad will happen. I've seen the ups and downs after previous elections and do think that 2017 will be a down year.”

When it comes to relations with Cuba, Tammy Levent, of Elite Travel, said that she isn’t concerned about how Trump changes travel to Cuba.

“Cuba is the least of our issues,” she said. “I'm concerned people will not spend money and start panicking and not traveling again as they did years ago.”

Jacob Marek is concerned about rolling back the progress that’s already been made. “But also, I’m concerned about the implications of a potentially deep recession, which could mean people cutting back on travel expenses,” said the founder & Chief Explorer at IntroverTravels.

Hurlbut said that American travel to Cuba could certainly be impacted by not just the Trump win, but more so because the traditionally anti-Castro Republican Party has regained both the House and Senate. “This will affect both cruise lines and airlines that had won the right to serve Cuba, but may be seen as a plus to Canadians and Europeans who had become concerned that American tourists would drive up room rates,” he said. “Cuba could become a cheap destination as suppliers worry about the fallout.”

Hurlbut also believes that Canadians traveling to the USA may be impacted depending on the U.S. dollar, combined with whether they choose to make a political statement by staying away. “Like most people, Canadians tend to make travel decisions based on their wallets, but also on a sense of safety,” he said. “If there are riots in the coming days, along racial or ideological lines, expect Canadians to avoid U.S. cities for a while."

Sergio Barros, director of sales for the Tenerife Bureau of Tourism, believes that the Trump presidency will positively influence the value of the dollar, “making it more affordable for travelers to visit Europe, and Tenerife in particular,” he said. “His presidency might impact tourism to Mexico and perhaps tourists will now seek out other Spanish-speaking destinations, such as Spain and the Canary Islands.”

Marjorie Laflin of It’s a Fine Day Travel, said she’s taking a wait-and-see approach. “I think both inbound and outbound travel will depend on Trump's relationship with the other countries of the world,” she said. “Better relationships foster more travel opportunities. On the topic of Cuba, the GOP is historically against engagement. Nevertheless, I foresee a reversal of all or nearly all of the recent executive orders to liberalize travel and commerce with Cuba but again, only time will tell.”

Simply put, Lynda Hawkins does not think that political opinions on the outcome of this election has anything at all to do with the travel industry. “At this time, it's impossible to predict what Trump's goal on Cuban travel will be,” said Hawkins, who works at Best Connection Travel.

However, Greg Geronemus, the co-CEO of smarTours is concerned about this relationship. “I believe that there is no better way to help the Cuban people than to send Americans to engage in meaningful, people-to-people exchanges,” he said. “Ever since Obama's historic announcement in December 2014 and the massive influx of American travelers, we have seen tremendous progress in Cuba, and there's no better example than the privately-owned restaurants (paladars) that have served scores of American travelers. The owners of these restaurants have benefited financially and many have reinvested in their communities to restore buildings and help others. I'm hopeful that President-elect Trump will do the right thing, but I’ll also add: if you really want to go to Cuba, go soon.”

Shari Latif said that Trump has bigger issues than Cuba to deal with. “I don't think we will really know where Trump is heading until he starts picking his cabinet and advisers,” said Latif, Travel Designer/Founder at Treasured Travel Experience. “I don't think he will have an impact on Cuba at least not at the beginning.”

Geronemus sums up this election season rather well. “Regardless of your politics, this has been a rough election, and I firmly believe everyone needs a vacation,” he said.

WTM London’s annual survey results, which were revealed earlier this week at the annual trade show, showed that an overwhelming majority of industry professionals – 60% – think that Clinton would be better for global business than Trump, who registered a mere 7%.

Despite Trump’s ownership of leisure and hospitality businesses around the world, which includes 15 Trump Hotels, spas and golf courses, many of his proposed policies are a sign that travel to the U.S. might become problematic.

His approach differs greatly to outgoing President Barack Obama, who oversaw a number of initiatives during his tenure that encouraged visits to the U.S. He paved the way for Brand USA, the public-private partnership promoting inbound travel to the U.S., which was launched at WTM London in 2011.

Trump’s policies sit uneasily with Brand USA’s efforts to welcome 100 million international visitors to the U.S. by 2021, up from 70 million in 2013.

In other related news, the official website for ‘Citizenship and Immigration Canada’ has crashed, apparently due to the sheer number of Americans looking to emigrate to the country following last night’s results. Canada’s official Twitter account even made reference to the election result in a tweet posted last night. It read: “In Canada, immigrants are encouraged to bring their cultural traditions with them and share them with their fellow citizens.”