IATA Expects 800 Million More Air Travelers by 2014

IATA Expects 800 Million More Air Travelers by 2014

The airline industry consensus forecast released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows that by 2014 there will be 3.3 billion air travelers, up by 800 million from the 2.5 billion in 2009. By 2014 international aviation will handle 38 million tons of air cargo, up 12.5 million tons from the 26 million tons carried in 2009.

China will be the biggest contributor of new travelers. Of the 800 million new travelers expected in 2014, 360 million (45 percent) will travel on Asia-Pacific routes and of those 214 million will be associated with China (181 million domestic and 33 million international). The United States will remain the largest single country market for domestic passengers (671 million) and international passengers (215 million).

International passenger numbers are expected to rise from 952 million in 2009 to 1.3 billion passengers in 2014. This 313 million traveler increase reflects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9 percent. The fastest growing markets for international passenger traffic will be China (10.8 percent), the United Arab Emirates (10.2 percent), Vietnam (10.2 percent), Malaysia (10.1 percent) and Sri Lanka (9.5 percent).

By 2014, the top five countries for international travel measured by number of passengers will be the United States (at 215 million, an increase of 45 million), the United Kingdom (at 198 million with an increase of 33 million), Germany (at 163 million with an increase of 29 million), Spain (123 million with an increase of 21 million), and France (111 million with an increase of 21 million).

Domestic passenger numbers are expected to rise from 1.5 billion in 2009 to over 2 billion in 2014. This 488 million passenger increase reflects a CAGR of 5.7 percent. China will record the highest CAGR of 13.9 percent and contribute an additional 181 million passengers. Other countries with double digit growth include Vietnam (10.9 percent), South Africa (10.6 percent), India (10.5 percent), and the Philippines (10.2 percent).

By 2014 the five largest markets for domestic passengers will be the United States (671 million), China (379 million), Japan (102 million), Brazil (90 million) and India (69 million).

North America will grow 4.9 percent for international passenger demand and 7.6 percent for international freight. The U.S. will continue to be the largest international and domestic passenger market in the world, and is expected to remain the largest international freight market by some margin.