ITB Berlin Convention Market, Trends & Innovation

With a 4 percent increase in international tourist arrivals from January through August 2007, Europe looks set to achieve another record year in terms of tourism growth, according to the World Travel Trends Report of ITB Berlin and IPK International.

Moreover, as the participants gathered in Pisa for the 15th World Travel Monitor Forum from 24-26 October agreed, the growth is remarkable since it will exceed the World Tourism Organization’s (UNWTO’s) long-term annual growth forecast for Europe of 3 percent for the fourth consecutive year.

If the 4 percent increase seen in the first eight months of this year continues through to the end of 2007, this will mean an additional 18 million arrivals –no mean feat for the world’s most mature destination region.

Northern Europe, on the other hand, has shown a marked slowdown in growth this year –largely due to the stagnation in international visitors to the UK- although some destinations have turned in good results. Finland is one example, having recorded a growth of nearly 8 percent in overnight volume from January through August.

Growth to Western Europe has also slowed, according to UNWTO –albeit only from 5 percent to 3 percent- attributed in part to Germany’s decline in arrivals through the second quarter of 2007. This was of course hardly surprising, given the huge boost to inbound tourism demand over the same period in 2006 provided by the country’s hosting of the FIFA Football World Cup.

Europe’s star performer this year so far, in terms of sub-regions, is Southern/Mediterranean Europe –up 7 percent in terms of international arrivals through the month of August. The sharp recovery of Turkey has been a main contributor to the improved performance, but the Balkan States have also performed well above average –in particular Montenegro and Serbia- and Malta has had an excellent year so far, largely thanks to the introduction of low-cost airline services.

The vast majority of international arrivals in Europe are, nonetheless, intra-regional and, as highlighted by the results of IPK International’s European Travel Monitor, outbound trip volume by Europeans rose by 3 percent from January through August 2007, with the growth in short trips (of 1-3 nights) outpacing that of trips of 4-plus nights, again, attributable to a higher than average increase in demand for low-cost/no-frills flights.

Interestingly, the 3 percent rise in outbound trip volume was achieved despite a stagnation in outbound travel demand by Europe’s leading source markets, Germany and the UK - which, together, account for around 35 percent of total European outbound trips.

While the Pisa Forum participants believe that outbound travel demand by Europeans may be affected by a possible slowdown in economic growth in 2008, not to mention the credit crunch and the possible fallout from the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, as well as increased concerns about climate change and environmental taxation, the prospects for 2008 remain bright.