ITB World Travel Trends Report: Hard Times Ahead for an Industry Spoiled by Success

Hard times lie ahead for the world’s travel industry. According to the ITB World Travel Trends Report, conducted by the consultants IPK International and commissioned by the global travel industry’s leading trade show, “at best, 2009 will be a year of stagnation.”

Published in Berlin, the trend analysis forecasts that in the wake of the global financial and economic crisis, the travel industry can expect to contract by one to two percent in 2009, and that in all likelihood the downturn will continue before things improve. Nor are the signals for 2010 encouraging.

According to the ITB Travel Trends Report, imminent negative developments will impact strongest on North America, Europe and the business travel sector, rather than on holiday travel.

According to Dr. Martin Buck, over the next two years interest in short and medium-range travel destinations will increase. In addition, with lower fuel prices there will be a resurgence of personal car travel.

The findings of the ITB World Travel Trends Reports indicate that the prospects for the travel market recovering vary significantly depending on the region. According to the researchers, the Asian-Pacific region and South America could emerge from the crisis by the end of this year, as these are the regions which depend most on rising demand from the threshold countries India and China.

According to the trend analysis there are positive signs for Europe as well. Even in times of great economic hardship people are unwilling to give up holidays. Thus, according to a Europe-wide poll for the European Travel Monitor in 2008, 48 percent of respondents said they would definitely take a holiday in 2009, and that it was most likely they would travel more often than in 2008.

Responding to the same question, 32 percent announced they would travel at least as often as in 2008, and only 14 percent said they would travel less. 6 percent of those polled said that in 2009 they would not travel at all. However, figures within Europe vary considerably. Whereas Norwegians and Finns are eager to travel in 2009, Italians and Britons are rather less keen to make any plans.

The ITB World Travel Trends Report is based on the assessments of 60 tourism experts from 30 countries, on an IPK International trend analysis in leading source markets undertaken specifically for the forum, and on core data supplied by the World Travel Monitor, recognized as the largest ongoing survey on global travel trends in some 60 source countries. This report is available for download at www.itb-berlin.com under Media Centre / Publications.

ITB Berlin 2009 will be taking place from Wednesday, 11 to Sunday, 15 March, and will be open to trade visitors from the Wednesday to the Friday. Parallel with the trade fair, the ITB Berlin Convention will be taking place from Wednesday, 11 to Saturday, 14 March 2009.