The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) revealed the results of its 2009 Economic Impact Research at its annual ITB Berlin press conference in the presence of industry leaders from different sectors of travel and tourism –high-level government representatives, and its research partner Oxford Economics.
“This year, the task of assessing travel and tourism trends and drawing up forecasts has been more challenging than ever because of all the uncertainties,” said Jean-Claude Baumgarten, WTTC president and CEO.
Given the significant deterioration in travel and tourism activity through the second half of 2008 and the bleak macroeconomic forecast for 2009, WTTC’s latest research shows that the travel and tourism economy GDP will contract by 3.6 percent in 2009. And it is expected to remain weak in 2010 with only marginal growth –less than 0.3 percent, currently predicted- on what will already be a weak 2009.
“Lower fuel costs will make a difference,” said Baumgarten, “as will lower general inflation, which should reverse part of last year’s squeeze on households’ spending power. But given how widespread and deep the current recession is, it is inevitable that travel and tourism will continue to be affected.”
“The industry is not expecting a bailout,” Baumgarten said. “It needs a supportive framework from government to help it weather the current storm. And governments would also do well to recognize travel and tourism’s potential to energize the economy once the current crisis eases.”
Travel and tourism investment and corporate travel are expected to be the hardest hit this year. Real investment spending is forecast to decline by 5 percent in 2009 and a further 1.25 percent in 2010.
“Emerging economies are expected to be the main engines of growth, generating hundreds of millions of new travelers from among the growing middle classes in countries like China, India and Brazil –boosting international travel, but also creating an increasingly vibrant domestic tourism sector,” said Baumgarten.
In developed countries, the increasing priority given to leisure activities can be expected to enhance demand for travel to existing and new tourism destinations once consumers regain confidence, while the popularity of short breaks- both domestic and international –will continue to expand in the medium to longer term.
Overall, the travel and tourism economy is forecast to grow by 4 percent per annum in real terms over the next 10 years. By 2019, travel and tourism will account for 275 million jobs, representing 8.4 percent of total employment across the world.
A total of 98 companies representing 36 countries have registered to participate at the 5th Moscow International MICE Forum on March 17. Registrations from Russian MICE specialists and corporate buyers are 17 percent higher than last year, and all signals indicate that this will again be a busy and highly-productive event.
Travel Planners International will hold its Second Annual Conference at Sea onboard the Carnival Glory sailing out of Port Canaveral August 29 to September 5 for seven days of training and fun while they visit the Eastern Caribbean.
The Route Development Group (RDG) has announced that the 3rd Routes Americas is to be held in Lima, Peru.
The sixth annual re-DISCOVER the Caribbean Show will take place on Friday, April 24 and Saturday, April 25, 2009 at the Sandiford Conference Centre in Barbados.
Some significant anniversaries are being celebrated in the Youth Travel sector at ITB Berlin. It is now 20 years since the Berlin Wall fell, the Youth Travel Centre is ten years old, and the YIG Germany pavilion has been in existence for five years. YIG stands for Youth Incoming Germany.