Tropical Storm Rafael Forms in the Caribbean, Forecast to Strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Rafael emerged in the Caribbean on Monday and is anticipated to strengthen into a hurricane, potentially impacting the U.S. Gulf Coast later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). However, the exact track and intensity remain uncertain, making it difficult to predict the storm's potential effects on the U.S.

"Though it would be notable for a tropical storm or hurricane to impact Texas, Louisiana, or Mississippi in November or December, those in the central and western Gulf Coast should stay vigilant," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season in 2024, which has exceeded the average of 14 named storms per season, according to Colorado State University researcher Phil Klotzbach.

Jamaica and Cuba Brace for Initial Impacts

As of Monday afternoon, Rafael was positioned about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, with sustained winds of 45 mph. It is forecast to move northwestward, affecting Jamaica by Monday evening, approaching the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and nearing Cuba by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to hit Jamaica by Monday evening, and hurricane conditions could affect the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and mudslides, particularly over Jamaica and parts of Cuba, with rainfall totals ranging from 3 to 6 inches, reaching up to 9 inches in isolated areas.

By the time Rafael reaches the central Gulf, increasing wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters are likely to weaken the storm. For now, officials advise people in the projected areas to stay alert for updates as the storm's path and intensity evolve.