Tropical Storm Gabrielle Could Develop this Weekend, Threaten the Leeward Islands

A tropical disturbance swirling in the eastern Atlantic is showing increasing signs of development and could soon become Tropical Storm Gabrielle, raising concerns for the Leeward Islands in the coming days.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the system, now located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, has a 70% chance of strengthening into a tropical storm within the next week. Forecasters expect it to move west or west-northwest at about 15 mph, on a path that could bring it closer to the northeastern Caribbean by mid-next week.

Meteorologists warn that September marks the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, when warm sea surface temperatures, reduced wind shear, and favorable atmospheric conditions make storm development more likely. The possible reemergence of La Niña and the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are also creating an environment ripe for intensification.

Forecast models currently show two possible tracks: one that could bring Gabrielle near or just north of the Leeward Islands around September 10–11, and another that steers the storm into the open Atlantic. While the exact trajectory remains uncertain, experts caution that residents in Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, and Guadeloupe should closely monitor updates.

Even if the storm avoids direct landfall, the islands could still face heavy rainfall, rough surf, and gusty winds from a nearby pass. Authorities are urging communities to review hurricane preparedness plans as conditions can change quickly during this stage of the season.

With the Atlantic entering its busiest period, the potential formation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle is a reminder of the need for vigilance. The NHC is expected to issue more detailed guidance in the coming days as the system organizes further.