NOAA Forecasts Normal Hurricane Season

June 1 marks the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30.

Although it is quiet now as Bonnie, the second-named storm of the season, runs out of steam as a tropical depression off the Carolinas, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center calls for 10 to 16 named storms of which four to eight could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to four major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher).

Hurricane Alex was a rare hurricane that moved through the Azores in January. Tropical storms can form during any month of the year, although conditions are more favorable in warmer weather when ocean temperatures are higher and wind shear lower.

The season will most likely be near-normal, “but forecast uncertainty in the climate signals that influence the formation of Atlantic storms make predicting this season particularly difficult,” according to Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster.

The near-normal prediction suggests more hurricane activity than in the last three years, which were below normal.

The U.S. is in the midst of a hurricane drought. There were no hurricane landfalls last year and the last time a Category 3 storm made landfall in the U.S. was when Wilma hit Florida in 2005. Sandy in 2012 made landfall along the East Coast as a non-tropical cyclone. Ike in 2008 was a Category 2 hurricane that battered the Texas coast.

NOAA will issue an updated outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.

Source: Travel Weekly